Ever since the company declared bankruptcy in 2009 in the midst of the last U.S. economic downturn. General Motors Company (NYSE: GM ) investors have been uneasy about how the company would navigate the next cyclical downturn in business.

For now, however, GM's business is firing on all cylinders, and analysts say today's GM is much more resilient than the 2009 version.

[See: 10 Hedge Fund Billionaires' Top Stocks to Buy .]

Last week, GM reported March vehicle sales that were well above consensus expectations. After ticking slightly lower in the months of January and February, GM's domestic deliveries surged higher by 15.7 percent in March, suggesting that the highly anticipated downturn in the U.S. auto market may not have arrived just yet. GM reported double-digit growth in each of its four major brands – Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet and GMC. GM's crossover sales were particularly strong, with sales of the Chevy Equinox, Chevy Traverse and GMC Terrain up 51 percent compared to a year ago.

General Motors reported a 17.7 percent estimated retail share, its highest share of March sales since 2009. Sales prices were in line with last year.

Despite the positive momentum in its business, GM stock is down more than 8 percent year-to-date. Its forward price-earnings ratio of just 5.9 remains the fourth-lowest in the entire Standard & Poor's 500 index. Investors are likely skeptical that GM can keep its business on track during the next market downturn given its history of struggles during periods of economic weakness.

However, Morningstar analyst David Whiston says 2009 GM has nothing to do with 2018 GM.

"We think GM's earnings potential is excellent because the company finally has a healthy North American unit and can focus its U.S. marketing efforts on just four brands instead of eight," Whiston says.

Whiston says GM's staggering $30 billion net loss in 2008 is now a distant memory for investors.

[See: 7 Auto Stocks to Drive Income .]

"GM now operates in a demand-pull model where it can produce only to meet demand, is structured to do no worse than break even at the bottom of an economic cycle, and is about to see the upside to having a high degree of operating leverage," he says.

As a result of its new and improved model, Whiston says GM can grow its profits even if it loses market share, a comforting thought for investors concerned about new challengers, such as Tesla ( TSLA ).

Morningstar has an "undervalued" rating and $56 fair value estimate for GM stock .

Compare Offers

Compare Offers

Raymond Mitchell, Author

Post a Comment